A Bayesian Framework For Strategic Management In The Energy Industry

The aim of this paper is to utilize Bayesian Networks scenario-building method to create a framework for analyzing the future of Iran’s energy industry. This framework helps to develop more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty by the ability to prediction and diagnose scenarios. Also this paper aims to quantify the scenarios as well as explaining qualitatively. In this paper, a combination of FMEA for recognition of significant factors and Agena Risk as an uncertainty modeling software were used for modeling. Foreign investment in energy industry, foreign investment and level of energy technology were identified as the three key criteria and critical uncertainties of the Iranian energy industry. Using these critical uncertainties and all the information gathered from experts, three scenarios were developed the validation of the model showed via them: Global reconciliation, Separation aware and good relationships. KeywordsEnergy; Uncertainty; Scenario building; Bayesian Networks